What Is Cone Of Uncertainty?
The white cone on hurricane maps showing where the storm's center will probably go. It does not show how big the storm is, and impacts often happen outside it. In technical terms: The NHC track forecast cone, formed by circles about each forecast position whose radii enclose the historical official track error in two-thirds of cases over the prior 5 years; it represents center-position uncertainty only, not wind field extent or hazards.
Also called: Forecast Cone, Cone
Cone Of Uncertainty In Plain English
The white cone on hurricane maps showing where the storm's center will probably go. It does not show how big the storm is, and impacts often happen outside it.
The Technical Definition
The NHC track forecast cone, formed by circles about each forecast position whose radii enclose the historical official track error in two-thirds of cases over the prior 5 years; it represents center-position uncertainty only, not wind field extent or hazards.
Lessons That Use Cone Of Uncertainty
- The Saffir-Simpson Scale And The Cone Unit 10: Tropical Cyclones
