What Is Ensemble Mean?
The average of all the forecasts in an ensemble. It is usually more accurate than any single run, though it smooths out extremes. In technical terms: The arithmetic average of all ensemble member forecasts; averaging filters unpredictable small-scale features, so the mean typically verifies better than individual members in RMS terms beyond a few days but understates the amplitude of extreme events.
Ensemble Mean In Plain English
The average of all the forecasts in an ensemble. It is usually more accurate than any single run, though it smooths out extremes.
The Technical Definition
The arithmetic average of all ensemble member forecasts; averaging filters unpredictable small-scale features, so the mean typically verifies better than individual members in RMS terms beyond a few days but understates the amplitude of extreme events.
Lessons That Use Ensemble Mean
- Ensembles And Forecast Uncertainty Unit 14: Forecast Models
