What Is Ensemble?
Running a weather model many times with slightly different starting conditions to see the range of possible outcomes. If they agree, confidence is high. In technical terms: A set of forecasts from perturbed initial conditions and/or model physics used to sample forecast uncertainty and produce probabilistic guidance; examples include GEFS (31 members), ECMWF ENS (51 members) and the HREF convection-allowing ensemble.
Also called: Ensemble Forecast, EPS
Ensemble In Plain English
Running a weather model many times with slightly different starting conditions to see the range of possible outcomes. If they agree, confidence is high.
The Technical Definition
A set of forecasts from perturbed initial conditions and/or model physics used to sample forecast uncertainty and produce probabilistic guidance; examples include GEFS (31 members), ECMWF ENS (51 members) and the HREF convection-allowing ensemble.
Lessons That Use Ensemble
- How Computer Forecast Models Work Unit 14: Forecast Models
- Ensembles And Forecast Uncertainty Unit 14: Forecast Models
